|The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis|
Climate change is already claiming 300,000 lives and costing the global economy $125bn every year. International cooperation is crucial to tackling the catastrophe - especially since the countries most at risk are the least responsible for the crisis. A report by the Global Humanitarian Forum.
2nd June 09 ~ STWR
29th May 09 - John Vidal, Guardian (UK)
Climate change is already responsible for 300,000 deaths a year and is affecting 300m people, according to the first comprehensive study of the human impact of global warming.
It projects that increasingly severe heatwaves, floods, storms and forest fires will be responsible for as many as 500,000 deaths a year by 2030, making it the greatest humanitarian challenge the world faces.
Economic losses due to climate change today amount to more than $125bn a year — more than all the present world aid. The report comes from former UN secretary general Kofi Annan's thinktank, the Global Humanitarian Forum. By 2030, the report says, climate change could cost $600bn a year.
Civil unrest may also increase because of weather-related events, the report says: "Four billion people are vulnerable now and 500m are now at extreme risk. Weather-related disasters ... bring hunger, disease, poverty and lost livelihoods. They pose a threat to social and political stability".
If emissions are not brought under control, within 25 years, the report states:
Climate change is expected to have the most severe impact on water supplies . "Shortages in future are likely to threaten food production, reduce sanitation, hinder economic development and damage ecosystems. It causes more violent swings between floods and droughts. Hundreds of millions of people are expected to become water stressed by climate change by the 2030. ".
The study says it is impossible to be certain who will be displaced by 2030, but that tens of millions of people "will be driven from their homelands by weather disasters or gradual environmental degradation. The problem is most severe in Africa, Bangladesh, Egypt, coastal zones and forest areas. ."
The study compares for the first time the number of people affected by climate change in rich and poor countries. Nearly 98% of the people seriously affected, 99% of all deaths from weather-related disasters and 90% of the total economic losses are now borne by developing countries. The populations most at risk it says, are in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, south Asia and the small island states of the Pacific.
But of the 12 countries considered least at risk, including Britain, all but one are industrially developed. Together they have made nearly $72bn available to adapt themselves to climate change but have pledged only $400m to help poor countries. "This is less than one state in Germany is spending on improving its flood defences," says the report.
The study comes as diplomats from 192 countries prepare to meet in Bonn next week for UN climate change talks aimed at reaching a global agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in December in Copenhagen. "The world is at a crossroads. We can no longer afford to ignore the human impact of climate change. This is a call to the negotiators to come to the most ambitious agreement ever negotiated or to continue to accept mass starvartion, mass sickness and mass migration on an ever growing scale," said Kofi Annan, who launched the report today in London.
Annan blamed politians for the current impasse in the negotiations and widespread ignorance in many countries. "Weak leadership, as evident today, is alarming. If leaders cannot assume responsibility they will fail humanity. Agreement is in the interests of every human being."
Barabra Stocking, head of Oxfam said: "Adaptation efforts need to be scaled up dramatically.The world's poorest are the hardest hit, but they have done the least to cause it.
Nobel peace prizewinner Wangari Maathai, said: "Climate change is life or death. It is the new global battlefield. It is being presented as if it is the problem of the developed world. But it's the developed world that has precipitated global warming."
Calculations for the report are based on data provided by the World Bank, the World Health organisation, the UN, the Potsdam Insitute For Climate Impact Research, and others, including leading insurance companies and Oxfam. However, the authors accept that the estimates are uncertain and could be higher or lower. The paper was reviewed by 10 of the world's leading experts incluing Rajendra Pachauri, head of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change, Jeffrey Sachs, of Columbia University and Margareta Wahlström, assistant UN secretary general for disaster risk reduction.
29th May 09 - Fiona Harvey, Financial Times
Climate change is claiming 300,000 lives a year and costing the global economy $125bn annually, with the damage set to escalate rapidly, according to the first study of the immediate effects of global warming.
A further 300m people around the world are seriously affected by climate change through, for instance, malnutrition or disease and by being displaced from their homes, according to a report from the Global Humanitarian Forum.
The study examines the effects of climate change today, rather than relying on projections of the future possible damage from a warming climate.
Kofi Annan, the president of the Global Humanitarian Forum and former United Nations secretary-general, said: “Climate change is causing suffering to hundreds of millions of people worldwide.”
Barbara Stocking, chief executive of the aid group Oxfam, added: “People think [climate change] is something happening in the future. But we know that it is happening now.” Ms Stocking called on industrialised countries to make more funds available to poor nations that would help them adapt to the ravages of global warming.
The study was compiled using a widely accepted methodology for examining the effects of climate change developed by the World Health Organisation. Dalberg Global Development Advisors, which carried out the study, used the WHO standards to calculate the extra deaths which could be attributed to global warming.
They ignored those that would be expected to occur anyway as a result of other causes, such as population growth, the spread of disease, poverty, environmental degradation and natural weather events.
To calculate the economic damage, they used some of the analytical tools developed for the Stern Review, the 2006 report into the economic consequences of climate change commissioned by the UK Treasury.
The losses to the world economy, which Friday’s report predicted would rise to $340bn (€241bn, £210bn) a year by 2030, spring from factors such as lower crop yields as temperatures rise, malnutrition and the spread of disease and consequent strain on health services.
By 2030, more than 500,000 people will die every year because of the effects of warming temperatures, the report found.
Also, by 2030, the report estimates, more than 660m people will be suffering the damage of climate change.
Mr Annan said that both the private and public sector must come up with answers to the problem ahead of negotiations in Copenhagen this December, which are aimed at drawing up a successor to the Kyoto protocol, the main provisions of which expire in 2012.
“The businesses and nations primarily responsible for the emissions causing climate change have to take the lead in tackling the problem,” he said.
Both rich and poor countries would be affected by the changes in the climate, he said, but the poor were much more badly equipped to cope.
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