STWR - Share The World's Resources

Mass public support and 'new ways of living' will be needed to save the global climate, and emissions of carbon dioxide will actually need to ‘go negative' during the second half of this century if targets are to be reached, according to State of the World 2009 released by the Worldwatch Institute. 

Read the full report: State of the World 2009: Into a Warming World

The world will have to reduce emissions more drastically than has been widely predicted, essentially ending the emission of carbon dioxide by 2050 to avoid catastrophic disruption to the world's climate, according to State of the World 2009: Into a Warming World. Yet opportunities abound in renewable energy and efficiency improvements, agriculture and forestry, and the resilience of societies for slowing and managing climate change, according to the book's 47 authors.

"We're privileged to live at a moment in history when we can still avert a climate catastrophe that would leave the planet hostile to human development and well-being," said Worldwatch Vice President for Programs Robert Engelman, project co-director for State of the World 2009. "But there's not much time left. Sealing the deal to save the global climate will require mass public support and worldwide political will to shift to renewable energy, new ways of living, and a human scale that matches the atmosphere's limits."

Into a Warming World, the 26th edition of the State of the World series, addresses the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well as prepare to adapt to climate change. The Earth's average temperature has already risen by more than 0.8 degrees Celsius (1.4 degrees Fahrenheit) since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the mid-18th century, with much of that increase attributed to human activities. Nearly 1 degree Celsius of additional warming may already be in store, based on past emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases that have not yet made their influence felt on surface temperatures.

A chapter by climate scientist W. L. Hare concludes that in order to avoid a catastrophic climate tipping point, global greenhouse gas emissions will need to peak before 2020 and drop 85 percent below 1990 levels by 2050, with further reductions beyond that date. Emissions of carbon dioxide would actually need to ‘go negative'-with more being absorbed than emitted-during the second half of this century. Hare's research finds that even a warming of 2 degrees Celsius poses unacceptable risks to key natural and human systems, including significant loss of species, major reductions in food-production capacity in developing countries, severe water stress for hundreds of millions of people, and significant sea-level rise and coastal flooding.

A successful climate strategy will motivate rapid reductions in emissions as well as major investments in adaptation, with both efforts necessarily financed mostly by the world's wealthier countries and people, the book argues. Such a strategy ultimately will also need to address the warming climate's connection to food production, population growth, and the global economy. Economists have estimated the cost of avoiding dangerous climate change at around $1-2.5 trillion a year for decades to come; yet the costs of not doing so are expected to be far higher.

In order to assess the threat the climate crisis presents-and explore innovative and practical solutions-Worldwatch enlisted more authors for this book than for any previous edition of the series, many hailing from the developing countries most vulnerable to climate change. The resulting framework offers a roadmap for a world that not only survives climate change, but emerges more stable, more just, and more prosperous.

At the center of this framework, the book's opening chapter notes ten key challenges* that must be adopted as part of any successful path to mitigation and climate change adaptation and resilience. (Resilience refers to societies' capacity to adapt to dramatic change without suffering significant reductions in governance, security, prosperity, or quality of life.)

Simultaneously addressing these interlinked and challenging issues could lay the groundwork for a world that will not merely bounce back from both the economic and climate crises, but surge forward. A new U.S. administration and impending climate negotiations in Copenhagen in December 2009 could finally break the gridlock that has long plagued climate policy.

"We can't afford to let the Copenhagen climate conference fail," said Worldwatch President Christopher Flavin. "The outcome of this meeting will be written in the history books-and in the lasting composition of the world's atmosphere."

Link to original source

Foreword

16th January 09 - R. K. Pachauri, Worldwatch Institute 

The Worldwatch Institute’s State of the World reports have evolved into a remarkable source of intellectual wealth that provides understanding and insight not only on the physical state of this planet but on human systems as they are linked with ecosystems and natural resources around the world. It is especially heartening that the focus of State of the World 2009 is on climate change.

The contents of this volume are of particular interest as they are based on the findings of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and provide a comprehensive overview of the policy imperatives facing humanity as we come to grips with this all-important challenge confronting the world today. The IPCC report provided the global community with up-to-date knowledge through an overall assessment of climate change that went substantially beyond its Third Assessment Report.

On the basis of strong and robust scientific evidence, the IPCC stated clearly that “warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.” The evidence from observations of the past 150 years or so leads to some profound conclusions. For instance, 11 of the last 12 years are among the 12 warmest years ever recorded in terms of global surface temperature.

This edition of State of the World brings out clearly the difference between inaction based on a business-as-usual approach and action to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in order to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has rightly called climate change “the defining challenge of our age.” Several world leaders have made similar statements to highlight the importance of taking climate change seriously when developing initiatives and plans for the future. State of the World 2009 has framed the challenge appropriately by emphasizing the importance of not only new technologies but also a very different approach in terms of human behavior and choices. An important element of future solutions is a different form of global governance—one that would create a high level of seriousness in the implementation of global agreements.

It is profoundly disappointing, for example, that although the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) came into existence in 1992 it took five more years to provide the convention with an agreement that could be implemented—the Kyoto Protocol. A further source of disappointment is the fact that the Kyoto Protocol, which required ratification by a minimum number of countries accounting for a specific share of greenhouse gas emissions, did not enter into force until 16 February 2005. All of this, unfortunately, provides a sad commentary on the importance that the global community has accorded the problem so far.

It was against this dismal record of inaction, and just after the release of the Synthesis Report of the recent IPCC report, that hopes were raised that the Thirteenth Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC, held in Bali in December 2007, would finally agree on some firm action on an agreement beyond 2012, the final year covered by the Kyoto Protocol. The meeting was even rescheduled to four weeks after the Synthesis Report was due to be published, so that the delegates would have time to study the IPCC’s findings. The Bali Action Plan that was adopted, following a great deal of debate and discussion, certainly provides hope for the future. It is gratifying that the discussions in Bali—and certainly the final declaration—were based predominantly on the assessment contained in the Synthesis Report, the final document in IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report.

State of the World 2009 has been structured logically into chapters that clearly explain the sequence that must guide our understanding of the problem and help set directions for taking action. Particularly relevant is the explanation of what would constitute a safe level of concentration of GHGs. Recall that the main objective of the UNFCCC is stabilization of GHGs in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with Earth’s climate system. Article 2 of the treaty notes that such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, ensure that food production is not threatened, and enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. Unfortunately, understanding what level of emissions would actually be dangerous is still not clear in policymaking circles around the world.

Several commentators in recent months have expressed deep concern at the current imbalance in the global market for foodgrains, which has hurt some of the poorest people on Earth. There is now mounting evidence that foodgrain output would be threatened by climate change, particularly if the average temperature were to reach 2.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. Some regions of the world would, of course, be affected far more than others. In Africa, for instance, 75–250 million people would experience water stress as early as 2020 as a consequence of climate change. Some countries on that continent may also be suffering from a 50-percent decline in agricultural yields by then.

The definition of what constitutes dangerous anthropogenic interference is therefore directly related to specific locations, because not only are the impacts of climate change likely to vary substantially across the planet but the capacity to adapt is also very diverse in different societies. What could be labeled as a dangerous level of anthropogenic interference may have already been reached or even exceeded in some parts of the world. Some small island states, for instance, often with land areas not more than a meter or two above sea level, face serious risks from flooding and storm surges that represent a major threat to life and property even today.

Mitigation measures that can help stabilize the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere have been assessed as generally very low in cost, and most of these carry large-scale co-benefits that in effect reduce the costs further quite significantly. State of the World 2009 clearly explains the benefits of harnessing low-carbon energy on “a grand scale.”

The world has been slow in adopting some of these energy options simply because we have not as yet taken full advantage of economies of scale. Nor have we carried out adequate research and development that would allow new technologies to evolve effectively within a short period of time. One important way to develop and disseminate appropriate technologies would be to place a price on carbon, which would provide significant incentives to producers as well as consumers. But there is also an important role for regulatory measures, standards, and codes that can lay down appropriate benchmarks to be observed in different sectors of the economy. Government policy, therefore, will be an important driver of action in the right direction for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. 

The strongest message from State of the World 2009 is this: if the world does not take action early and in adequate measure, the impacts of climate change could prove extremely harmful and overwhelm our capacity to adapt. At the same time, the costs and feasibility of mitigation of GHG emissions are well within our reach and carry a wealth of substantial benefits for many sections of society. Hence, it is essential for the world to look beyond business as usual and stave off the crisis that faces us if we fail to act. 

This publication comes at a time when governments are focused on reaching an agreement in Copenhagen at the end of 2009 to tackle the challenge of climate change. It will undoubtedly influence the negotiators from different countries to look beyond the narrow and short-term concerns that are far too often the reason for inaction. Indeed, we all need to encourage and join them in showing a determination and commitment to meet this global challenge before it is too late.

R. K. Pachauri is Director General of The Energy and Resources Institute, and Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Link to original source