| Africa Policy Outlook 2006 |
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Page 3 of 3 The Ballot & The Bullet: Key Countries in Transition In 2006, some of the largest countries on the African continent remain plagued by insecurity and conflict, but most are in the process of a transition requiring U.S. and international support this year. Despite the direct responsibility that the U.S. shares for some of Africa’s current conflicts, and despite the U.S. capacity to provide key support for conflict resolution on the continent, the current U.S. approach to promoting security in Africa intends to keep the U.S. one step removed from engagement with African initiatives. The U.S. refuses to participate in multilateral peacekeeping efforts in Africa, and it has failed to lead international action to protect the people of Darfur. In its Sudan policy, as noted above, the U.S. subordinates human rights concerns to a geo-strategic agenda. There is a clear and urgent need for an international intervention in Darfur to stop the genocide, provide protection to civilians and humanitarian operations, create a climate for successful peace talks and help facilitate the return of displaced people to their lands. The African Union mission in Darfur needs and deserves international support to arrest this crime against humanity. But 18 months since it acknowledged that genocide was taking place in Darfur, the U.S. has yet to articulate and pursue a plan to stop it. Meanwhile, the people of southern Sudan have stepped onto a new political battleground for continuing their own struggle for self-determination and development in the south. With the tragic death last summer of the southern leader, Dr. John Garang, the vision of a "new Sudan", unitary and democratic, has lost its principal prophet. The Islamist segment of the Government of National Unity, which holds the reins of power in Khartoum, intends to go slow in implementing the CPA, and U.S. engagement this year will be critical in holding Khartoum to its previous commitments. Sudan also faces growing challenges from other alienated and marginalized communities throughout the country, particularly the Beja people in the east, and these challenges will likely grow in the coming months. The conflict in northern Uganda continues this year despite limited efforts at resolution. It has attracted international attention to the broader question of child soldiers but inadequate efforts to end the violence of the Lord’s Resistance Army, which has recently been implicated in attacks across the border in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Parliamentary and presidential elections are planned for the DRC by the end of June, and these will mark the first free elections in that country since independence in 1961. These votes will form a key step in the peacemaking process in DRC, though ongoing instability in the east of the country and the presence there of Burundian and Rwandese militias remains a destabilizing reality. Many Congolese refugees have not been returned, especially in eastern Congo, and will not be able to vote, and there are concerns that the international community may be overly eager to simply hold some manner of elections this summer in order to declare a successful transition and to begin reducing the role of the UN mission there. It is estimated that more than 1,000 people are still dying each day in the humanitarian crisis in eastern Congo [8]. In West Africa, countries like Liberia and Sierra Leone will this year take the first steps in the long climb up and out of the deadly chaos visited upon their people during the past two decades. 2006 began with the inauguration of Africa’s first woman elected President, Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf in Liberia. Her accomplishment is part of the picture of increased representation of women in the political process in Africa. Three African countries - Rwanda, Mozambique & South Africa - rank among the top 15 countries worldwide in the percentage of female parliamentarians (more than 30%). Two of the four female Prime Ministers in the world today are in Africa - in Mozambique and São Tomé e Princípe. Yet the West African sub-region remains unstable, as several countries emerge from civil war seeking to consolidate peace processes and plan for elections, including Cote d’Ivoire, which is scheduled for elections in October 2006. There is still a large presence of UN peacekeeping operations in the area, with more than 25,000 troops in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Cote d’Ivoire combined. In Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, President Olusegun Obasanjo has expressed interest in seeking a third term in 2007, a move that would require a constitutional amendment. Members of the Nigerian National Assembly have expressed dismay at this possibility. Nigeria remains a key partner for the U.S. in Africa, and its internal challenges (poverty, ethnic and religious violence, HIV/AIDS, environmental issues) must be confronted as part of its ongoing democratic transition. In East Africa, recent important elections have failed to produce new and inspiring choices. In Ethiopia, contested elections drew a violent response from the government and in Uganda harsh tactics were used to deny the opposition presidential candidate a fair contest at the polls. In each case, public outcry and calls for democratic change will continue to grow in 2006. The current battles over constitutional reform in Kenya are indicative of the new arena for political struggle on the road of democratization. African civil society actors demand a new social contract between African states and their citizens to guarantee basic rights regardless of which party may be in power. In Somalia, the power vacuum and absence of social and economic infrastructure continue to be neglected by the international community, and should receive new scrutiny in 2006 beyond the prism of the so-called War on Terrorism and related security concerns. In southern Africa, Zimbabwe poses deep questions regarding how authoritarian rule will eventually be ended there and highlights major challenges facing all the former white minority ruled states in that sub-region. The African Commission on Human and People's Rights of the African Union (AU) has adopted a resolution strongly denouncing Zimbabwe's human rights practices. The move marks the first time the AU has observed and condemned a member state’s government for rights abuses. This year, greater political efforts will be required to press for negotiations between the government and opposition in Zimbabwe, though the recent splintering of the opposition now poses new challenges. In South Africa, where the government has promised to transfer 30% of commercial farmland to black owners by 2014, less than 4% had been redistributed by the beginning of 2006. In North Africa, U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s recent trip to Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia highlights the warming relationship between the U.S. and these countries, with the backdrop of a perceived mutual interest in confronting Islamic militants and other terrorist threats. However, the dual threats of radical religious fundamentalism and the anti-democratic authoritarianism of governments in many North African countries require a well-informed policy response if the U.S. is to help increase the chances for sustainable democracy, and decrease the chances for conflict in this vital region. In general, the wave of democratization that has swept over Africa during the past decade and a half has all but put an end to military regimes and one-party rule. The continent has settled into a new era of multiparty politics where elections are now the norm for competing for a share of local, regional and national power, and the competing parties are representative of a range of ethnic, regional, social and economic interests. At the same time, some civilianized military rulers and old-style despots are still in place, and have been able to beat back challenges from newly legal opposition parties and their leaders. Whether by fixing election results or merely abusing the advantages of incumbency to deny airtime, public space or security to opponents, the heavy hands of those in power still carry significant weight. As a consequence, Africa continues to be the continent with the youngest population and the oldest political leaders. The African Union continues to develop its own institutional structures to promote continent-wide integration, and it is developing its capacity to respond to conflicts and other political challenges. However, as the shortcomings of its mission in Darfur demonstrate, the AU is still a nascent organization and needs concerted international support in its efforts to address genocide and other serious challenges around the continent. The refusal of the AU to transfer the chair of the organization to Sudanese President Omar El-Bashir in January 2006, because of concerns over Darfur, marked an important step and a break from its predecessor institution’s shortcomings. Finally, the United Nations Human Rights Council, proposed by the UN Secretary-General and likely to be established in 2006, will offer a reformed vehicle for addressing violations of human rights in Africa and making recommendations for changing state behavior toward its citizens. As pointed out by Nobel Laureate Archbishop Desmond Tutu [9], a strong and effective Human Rights Council is in the interests of all, especially of Africa. Recent expressions of U.S. opposition to the latest proposals for this body are a cause for concern, and the U.S. should continue to engage in international efforts to create a strong and credible body as one concrete expression of U.S. support for African human rights priorities. Conclusion In 2006, the narrow notion of security promoted within current U.S. Africa policy, and the U.S.’ rejection of the more holistic concept of "human security", will be challenged by the growing threat posed by public health concerns and other global issues. This dichotomy will also serve to illuminate the divide between African priorities and American imperatives on today’s global challenges. Increasingly, the interests pursued by this Administration appear to be at odds with what average Americans want to see in U.S. Africa relations. Recent polls show a real interest on the part of the American public in African affairs, and indicate a more sophisticated understanding of shared interests in addressing shared global challenges [10]. These polls, and escalating activism on Darfur and other key issues, show public support for greater U.S. engagement on African priorities. In recent years, as the "compassionate conservatism" of the White House in its Africa policy has been showcased at home and abroad, the trends and expressions of Africa policy that are the most revealing have received the least scrutiny. The Administration has successfully kept the spotlight on its humanitarian façade and away from the creeping expansion of the U.S. military presence on the continent and the ongoing preoccupation with oil. In 2006, as concern grows over the most pressing security threats, from HIV/AIDS and the bird flu to the ongoing genocide in Darfur, the U.S. will face increasing demands to adapt its Africa policy to address these contemporary challenges. Salih Booker & Ann-Louise Colgan * Salih Booker is Executive Director, and Ann-Louise Colgan is Director of Policy Analysis & Communications, at Africa Action, the oldest Africa advocacy organization in the U.S. ENDNOTES: 1. Gleneagles Communiqué on Africa, Climate Change, Energy and Sustainable Development, July 2005: http://www.fco.gov.uk/Files/kfile/PostG8_Gleneagles_Africa,0.pdf 2. Statement of General James L. Jones, USMC, before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 28 September 2005 3. James Brandon, Christian Science Monitor, 9 January 2006, "To Fight Al Qaeda, US Troops in Africa build schools instead." 4. The Economist [reported in The Independent (UK) on December 30, 2005] 5. For information on the Pan-African Treatment Access Movement, see http://www.patam.org 6. Jason Gale, Bloomberg, 19 January 2006, "Africa, Overwhelmed by AIDS, May Struggle to Control Bird Flu." 7. The results of a poll conducted by the Harvard School of Public Health in February 2006 are available at: http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/press/releases/press02232006.html 8. Ingrid Melander, Reuters, 13 February 2006, "UN Warns of Humanitarian Disaster in the DRC." 9. Archbishop Desmond Tutu, International Herald Tribune, January 9, 2006, "Africa Must Take a Leading Role." 10. The results of a poll conducted by the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) to assess public opinion on African issues are available at: http://www.americans-world.org/digest/regional_issues/africa/africa_sum.cfm; the results of a poll commissioned by the International Crisis Group in June 2005 to assess American attitudes to the Darfur crisis are available at: http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=3492&l=1 Source: Africa Action
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